How we fact-check rumors: methodology

We fact-check viral alarming “news”: rumors about disasters, attacks, shutdowns, “insider leaks” and “secret dates”. We do not set out to prove a pre-chosen answer: if a rumor turns out to be true, we say so.

How we check

1. Split the post into separate claims: what will happen, when, who is behind it, what it cites.
2. Trace the original source in at least three languages and build a timeline: who, when, where, how the text changed.
3. Check whether the rumor is attached to a real event on that date.
4. Look for existing fact-checks and official statements.
5. Check each claim on its merits: is it technically and legally possible, has it happened before.
6. Compare with similar rumors over the past 5 years.
7. Flag signs of manipulation, each with evidence.
8. See how the rumor spreads on social media.
9. Give a verdict and a confidence level.

Verdicts

• Fake — the key claims are invented.
• False conclusion — the conclusion doesn't follow from the facts: they are read selectively, subjectively or out of context.
• Unproven — no evidence either way, or the event is still ahead.
• True — confirmed.

Confidence level

Next to the verdict there is a four-bar meter: how confident we are in the verdict itself, not in the rumor. We go from the top down and pick the first level that fits.

• very high — a primary source (the document itself, a statement by the body concerned, raw data) plus at least two independent sources say the same; no evidence against.
• high — at least two independent reliable sources agree, or there is one primary source; only minor gaps.
• moderate — one reliable source, or several repeating the same origin, or no confirmation from a primary source, or conflicting evidence that can be explained.
• low — thin, indirect or anonymous evidence, unresolved conflicts, or key sources unavailable.

• Reposts of one source count as one.
• If no primary source was checked, the level is moderate at most.
• Any unresolved contradiction lowers the level by one step.
• If the only refutation comes from a state body of the country concerned, with no independent confirmation, the level is moderate at most.
• Under the meter we explain in one sentence why the level is what it is.

Rules

• Every fact has a link. No link, no fact; unverified items go to a separate section.
• We do not accuse people: we write “the claim is not supported”, not “they are lying”.
• Headlines are neutral so as not to amplify the rumor.
• Quotes are short; we do not copy full texts.
• Checks are prepared by an AI agent and reviewed by a human before publishing. Each check is written in Russian first and then translated.