Is it true that scientists have named the date of the end of the world: November 13, 2026?

The paper is real: "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026," Science, November 4, 1960, by Heinz von Foerster, Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot. But it is not a prophecy of the world's end. It is a calculation: on that date the number of people would reach infinity if growth kept following the old pattern.^[1][7][4]

The formula (population = 179 billion / (2026.9 − year) to the power of 0.99) described growth fairly well until the early 1990s. From about 1993 reality fell behind: by the formula there would be about 200 billion people at the start of 2026, but in fact there are about 8.3 billion. The world birth rate is now a little under half of the 1960 level.^[3][4][6][2]

According to the 2024 UN forecast, the population will grow from 8.2 billion to a peak of about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, then start to decline. That is slowing growth, not an explosion.^[9][13]

It was partly a joke: November 13 is von Foerster's birthday (born 13.11.1911), and 2026 is his 115th anniversary. Historian Alan MacEachern calls the paper a device to draw attention to population growth.^[3][10][4]

The authors did not work at Harvard; they were from the University of Illinois. The Portuguese fact-checking service Observador already rated this version misleading in 2024.^[7]

True. They wrote that descendants would be "crushed" by overcrowding and proposed that everyone together halve the birth rate. The birth rate really did fall by about half, though not by their recipe.^[5][11][4]

The paper by von Foerster, Mora and Amiot, "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026," is published. Letters to the editor call it absurd.^[1][7]

A wave of "Harvard expert predicted the end of the world in 2026" posts. On September 23, 2024, Observador rates it "misleading."^[7][8]

TSN (January 9) and MK (January 10) retell the paper under alarming headlines. MK adds "physicists" and "natural disasters," which are not in the paper.^[13][12]

Von Foerster is presented as a "mathematician who warned about AI" and "knows the exact date."^[16]

Historian Alan MacEachern (Western University, Canada) publishes a popular analysis of the paper. It is republished and the topic goes viral.^[5][4]

The first Russian-language retelling of the analysis that we found, citing the Daily Mail.^[14]

Science publishes economist Javier Birchenall's opinion piece "Demographic 'doomsday' misses the mark." The same day, Vokrug Sveta (a Russian popular science magazine) publishes its own analysis.^[2][15]

Headlines like "Scientists named the date of the apocalypse: a little over a month left." Inside, there is a caveat about the joke and the birthday.^[10]

Ukrainian and American media pick up the topic; headlines quote "they will be crushed."^[11][6]

An image saying "12 days until the end of the world" spreads on Threads (more than 650 likes, according to IBTimes).^[17]

Posts saying "9 days left" and "Egyptian prophecy," based on a 1964 newspaper item; Al Jazeera reports on the wave.^[20]

A video with an image of a hurricane captioned "maybe this is doomsday"; on November 5 Ecuador Chequea rates it "false."^[19]

Headlines "Doomsday week" and "end of the world in less than a week"; the text says the calculation is outdated.^[23][24]

The model turned a temporary surge in growth into an "eternal law"; given the slowdown of recent decades, it is even weaker.^[2]

The formula worked until about 1993, then birth rates fell. November 13 will be an ordinary day.^[4]

There are about 8.3 billion people and growth is slowing; growth was at its highest right around the 1960s.^[6]

The "Harvard expert" version is misleading; the forecast was conditional.^[7]

"False": a TikTok video links an image of a hurricane to the 1960 population paper; the authors were not from Harvard.^[19]

It is not a prophecy but a calculation that did not come true.^[21][22]

Describes the Arabic-language wave: the 1964 "Egyptian prophecy" and jokes about bills and stocking up on food; explains why the calculation did not come true.^[20]

They explain why the forecast did not come true and give population data and the UN forecast.^[15][13][14]

Alarming headlines, with the clarification only in the body text.^[10][11][12]

Alarming headlines five days before the date; the text says birth rates are falling and the forecast did not come true.^[23][24]

On November 12–13, 2026 it holds a scientific conference, "On the Sense and Nonsense of End-of-the-World Predictions," timed to the date.^[18]

An image saying "12 days until the end of the world" with a link to the 1960 study.^[17]

~2026-11-01 · more than 650 likes and 130 reposts as of 2026-11-01 (per IBTimes)

A user asks the AI chatbot Grok what "end of the world" scientists predicted for November 13, 2026. Search results show 5.5 million views; we could not open the post itself.^[25]

An image of a hurricane captioned "maybe this is doomsday." Reach not reported.^[19]

~2026-11-05

"9 days left," "Egyptian prophecy"; lots of jokes about bills and stocking up on food.^[20]

~2026-11-04

Hasil: Nothing happened. NASA explained in advance: the Maya calendar simply reached the end of a cycle.^[26]

Hasil: Nothing happened. NASA: there is no such planet. The date was later moved to October 15, and again nothing happened.^[27]

Hasil: The same 1960 paper. Rated misleading.^[7]