Is it true that scientists have named the date of the end of the world: November 13, 2026?

Is it true that scientists have named the date of the end of the world: November 13, 2026?

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热点：谣言中的日期还没到 谣言中的日期： 2026.11.13

谣言： Posts claim that scientists calculated the date of doomsday back in 1960: Friday, November 13, 2026, and that "only days are left until the apocalypse." Some add that it was a "Harvard expert" or a "mathematician who warned about AI."

1. 结论

错误结论

The 1960 paper is real, but it did not predict the end of the world. It is a calculation: if population kept growing as it had for the 2,000 years before 1960, it would reach infinity by November 13, 2026. Since the early 1990s growth has fallen behind the formula, and there are about 8.3 billion people today, not hundreds of billions. The date was chosen partly as a joke: it is the birthday of the lead author.

High: the 1960 paper is in the Science archive, and Science itself, historian Alan MacEachern and the fact-checkers at Observador explain it the same way; UN population data are far from the calculation. Not "very high": we could not read the full text of the paper.

2. 更新

  • . The topic reached major Brazilian media. CNN Brasil ran the headline "Doomsday week: everything will end next Friday, the 13th," and the Massa website wrote "scientists set the end of the world for less than a week from now." The articles themselves explain that the 1960 calculation did not come true: birth rates in Brazil and worldwide are falling. No new fact-checks or official statements were found after November 7.[23][24]
  • . Italian and Colombian media (Sky TG24, Occidente) are covering the topic: it is not a prophecy but a calculation that did not come true, and the Harvard version is debunked again. These November 4–5 publications were found during the November 7 check; no newer debunkings or official statements were found.[21][22]
  • . Ecuadorian fact-checking service Ecuador Chequea rated the rumor false. It was prompted by a TikTok video (account Umbral Lab): an image of a hurricane captioned "maybe this is doomsday." The hurricane has nothing to do with the 1960 paper.[19]
  • . The rumor spread on Arabic-language social media. According to Al Jazeera, a 1964 item from the Egyptian newspaper Watani also resurfaced there: it is passed off as an "Egyptian prophecy," with posts saying "9 days left." Many reply with jokes like "so do we still have to pay the bills?"[20]

3. 说法与事实

  • «Scientists named the date of the end of the world: November 13, 2026»歪曲

    The paper is real: "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026," Science, November 4, 1960, by Heinz von Foerster, Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot. But it is not a prophecy of the world's end. It is a calculation: on that date the number of people would reach infinity if growth kept following the old pattern.[1][7][4]

  • «The calculation was accurate, and the date is confirmed»虚假

    The formula (population = 179 billion / (2026.9 − year) to the power of 0.99) described growth fairly well until the early 1990s. From about 1993 reality fell behind: by the formula there would be about 200 billion people at the start of 2026, but in fact there are about 8.3 billion. The world birth rate is now a little under half of the 1960 level.[3][4][6][2]

  • «The world's population is about to "explode"»虚假

    According to the 2024 UN forecast, the population will grow from 8.2 billion to a peak of about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, then start to decline. That is slowing growth, not an explosion.[9][13]

  • «The date was calculated in all seriousness»歪曲

    It was partly a joke: November 13 is von Foerster's birthday (born 13.11.1911), and 2026 is his 115th anniversary. Historian Alan MacEachern calls the paper a device to draw attention to population growth.[3][10][4]

  • «This is a forecast by a "Harvard expert"»虚假

    The authors did not work at Harvard; they were from the University of Illinois. The Portuguese fact-checking service Observador already rated this version misleading in 2024.[7]

  • «The authors warned about the danger of population growth»属实

    True. They wrote that descendants would be "crushed" by overcrowding and proposed that everyone together halve the birth rate. The birth rate really did fall by about half, though not by their recipe.[5][11][4]

4. 谣言从哪里来

  • Science magazine · en

    The paper by von Foerster, Mora and Amiot, "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026," is published. Letters to the editor call it absurd.[1][7]

  • ≈ Facebook, Spanish-language sites · es, pt

    A wave of "Harvard expert predicted the end of the world in 2026" posts. On September 23, 2024, Observador rates it "misleading."[7][8]

  • Websites · uk, ru

    TSN (January 9) and MK (January 10) retell the paper under alarming headlines. MK adds "physicists" and "natural disasters," which are not in the paper.[13][12]

  • ≈ Website latination.com · en

    Von Foerster is presented as a "mathematician who warned about AI" and "knows the exact date."[16]

  • The Conversation, Gizmodo · en

    Historian Alan MacEachern (Western University, Canada) publishes a popular analysis of the paper. It is republished and the topic goes viral.[5][4]

  • M24 · ru

    The first Russian-language retelling of the analysis that we found, citing the Daily Mail.[14]

  • Science magazine; Vokrug Sveta · en, ru

    Science publishes economist Javier Birchenall's opinion piece "Demographic 'doomsday' misses the mark." The same day, Vokrug Sveta (a Russian popular science magazine) publishes its own analysis.[2][15]

  • E1.ru and others · ru

    Headlines like "Scientists named the date of the apocalypse: a little over a month left." Inside, there is a caveat about the joke and the birthday.[10]

  • Gordon.ua, Popular Science · uk, ru, en

    Ukrainian and American media pick up the topic; headlines quote "they will be crushed."[11][6]

  • Threads · en

    An image saying "12 days until the end of the world" spreads on Threads (more than 650 likes, according to IBTimes).[17]

  • Arabic-language social media; Al Jazeera · ar

    Posts saying "9 days left" and "Egyptian prophecy," based on a 1964 newspaper item; Al Jazeera reports on the wave.[20]

  • ≈ TikTok (Ecuador) · es

    A video with an image of a hurricane captioned "maybe this is doomsday"; on November 5 Ecuador Chequea rates it "false."[19]

  • CNN Brasil, Massa (Brazil) · pt

    Headlines "Doomsday week" and "end of the world in less than a week"; the text says the calculation is outdated.[23][24]

文本如何变化

  1. "If growth continues as before, the population will go to infinity" (1960)
  2. → "scientists predicted the end of the world"
  3. → + "Harvard expert" (2024)
  4. → + "physicists," "natural disasters" (January 2026)
  5. → + "mathematician who warned about AI" (August 2026)
  6. → + "N days left," tied to rumors about stockpiling food and an internet shutdown (October–November 2026)
  7. → + a 1964 "Egyptian prophecy," an image of a hurricane (November 2026)

5. 媒体怎么说

  • Science (opinion by J. Birchenall)辟谣

    The model turned a temporary surge in growth into an "eternal law"; given the slowdown of recent decades, it is even weaker.[2]

  • The Conversation / ScienceDaily (A. MacEachern)辟谣

    The formula worked until about 1993, then birth rates fell. November 13 will be an ordinary day.[4]

  • Popular Science辟谣

    There are about 8.3 billion people and growth is slowing; growth was at its highest right around the 1960s.[6]

  • Observador (Portugal)辟谣

    The "Harvard expert" version is misleading; the forecast was conditional.[7]

  • Ecuador Chequea (Ecuador)辟谣

    "False": a TikTok video links an image of a hurricane to the 1960 population paper; the authors were not from Harvard.[19]

  • Sky TG24 (Italy), Occidente (Colombia)辟谣

    It is not a prophecy but a calculation that did not come true.[21][22]

  • Al Jazeera背景

    Describes the Arabic-language wave: the 1964 "Egyptian prophecy" and jokes about bills and stocking up on food; explains why the calculation did not come true.[20]

  • Vokrug Sveta, TSN, M24辟谣

    They explain why the forecast did not come true and give population data and the UN forecast.[15][13][14]

  • E1.ru, Gordon.ua, MK转述

    Alarming headlines, with the clarification only in the body text.[10][11][12]

  • CNN Brasil, Massa (Brazil)转述

    Alarming headlines five days before the date; the text says birth rates are falling and the forecast did not come true.[23][24]

  • Complexity Science Hub (Vienna)背景

    On November 12–13, 2026 it holds a scientific conference, "On the Sense and Nonsense of End-of-the-World Predictions," timed to the date.[18]

6. 社交媒体

  • Threads恐慌

    An image saying "12 days until the end of the world" with a link to the 1960 study.[17]

    ~2026-11-01 · more than 650 likes and 130 reposts as of 2026-11-01 (per IBTimes)

  • X · @RRyanMalk怀疑

    A user asks the AI chatbot Grok what "end of the world" scientists predicted for November 13, 2026. Search results show 5.5 million views; we could not open the post itself.[25]

  • TikTok · Umbral Lab恐慌

    An image of a hurricane captioned "maybe this is doomsday." Reach not reported.[19]

    ~2026-11-05

  • Arabic-language social media讽刺

    "9 days left," "Egyptian prophecy"; lots of jokes about bills and stocking up on food.[20]

    ~2026-11-04

7. 操纵迹象

  • An exact, near date. "A little over a month until the end of the world" (E1.ru), "12 days" (Threads).
  • A false appeal to authority. "Harvard expert," although the authors were from Illinois; "physicists predicted natural disasters," although the paper says no such thing.
  • A fact torn out of context. The condition "if growth continues as before" is dropped, leaving "scientists named the date."
  • A scary headline, a text that debunks it. MK: the headline says "end of the world," the text says "most likely not."
  • A label that plays on fear. "They will be crushed," "Doomsday," "Friday the 13th."

8. 过去的类似谣言

  • "End of the world according to the Mayan calendar"

    结果： Nothing happened. NASA explained in advance: the Maya calendar simply reached the end of a cycle.[26]

  • Collision of Earth with the "planet Nibiru"

    结果： Nothing happened. NASA: there is no such planet. The date was later moved to October 15, and again nothing happened.[27]

  • "Harvard expert predicted the end of the world in 2026"

    结果： The same 1960 paper. Rated misleading.[7]

与过去谣言的共同点

  • An exact date that is not far away
  • A reference to an authority ("scientists," "Harvard," "NASA")
  • A real fact (the paper in Science) torn out of context
  • Debunkings exist, but mostly only headlines get read

新内容

  • The source is a real scientific paper, not a prophet or a cult member
  • The author of the formula picked the date ironically, using his own birthday
  • Science itself "answers" the date: a paper in Science and a conference in Vienna
  • The rumor merged with neighboring ones: "stock up on food," "the internet will be shut down on November 17"

10. 应该怎么做

  • You do not need to do anything: November 13, 2026 is an ordinary Friday.
  • If you see "scientists named the date," look for the paper itself: here it is a joking mathematical calculation from 1960.
  • Read past the headline: many scary articles admit at the end that nothing will happen.

11. 我们未能核实的内容

  • We could not read the text of the 1960 paper directly (the scan has no text layer and Science is paywalled); the formula and quotes come from Wikipedia and retellings, which agree with each other.
  • The @RRyanMalk post on X cannot be opened without logging in; the view count (5.5 million) is visible only in search results.
  • We did not find MacEachern's original column on The Conversation; we used the ScienceDaily reprint.
  • A Science news item saying that Patrick Gerland, head of the UN population estimates section, criticizes the approach is visible only in search results; the page is blocked (error 403).
  • We did not find the very first viral post of 2026; the timeline is built from media publication dates.

12. 来源

  1. Science, 1960 — "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026" · 访问于 2026.11.05
  2. Science, 2026 — "Demographic 'doomsday' misses the mark" · 访问于 2026.11.05
  3. Wikipedia — Heinz von Foerster (formula, date of birth) · 访问于 2026.11.05
  4. ScienceDaily — column by A. MacEachern (The Conversation) · 访问于 2026.11.05
  5. Gizmodo — scientists once calculated the date of doomsday · 访问于 2026.11.05
  6. Popular Science — the 1960 forecast · 访问于 2026.11.05
  7. Observador — fact check of the "Harvard expert" claim (2024) · 访问于 2026.11.05
  8. El Cronista — "Harvard expert" · 访问于 2026.11.05
  9. Dawn — UN: population peak of 10.3 billion in the 2080s · 访问于 2026.11.05
  10. E1.ru — "Scientists named the date of the apocalypse" · 访问于 2026.11.05
  11. Gordon.ua — "They will be crushed" · 访问于 2026.11.05
  12. MK — "Friday the 13th: physicists predicted the end of the world" · 访问于 2026.11.05
  13. TSN — "Only days left until the end of the world" · 访问于 2026.11.05
  14. M24 — scientist refutes the end-of-the-world forecast · 访问于 2026.11.05
  15. Vokrug Sveta — "Doomsday is cancelled" · 访问于 2026.11.05
  16. Latination — "mathematician who warned about AI" · 访问于 2026.11.05
  17. IBTimes UK — "12 days until the end of the world" · 访问于 2026.11.05
  18. Complexity Science Hub — conference 13 November 2026 Doomsday · 访问于 2026.11.05
  19. Ecuador Chequea — "End of the world on November 13, 2026? False" · 访问于 2026.11.07
  20. Al Jazeera — "Do we still pay the bills?": the November 13 doomsday rumor · 访问于 2026.11.07
  21. Sky TG24 — why November 13 is not a prophecy · 访问于 2026.11.07
  22. Occidente — debunking the November 13 doomsday theory · 访问于 2026.11.07
  23. CNN Brasil — "Doomsday week" · 访问于 2026.11.09
  24. Massa — "End of the world in less than a week" · 访问于 2026.11.09
  25. X — @RRyanMalk · 访问于 2026.11.05
  26. NASA — Why the World Didn't End Yesterday (2012) · 访问于 2026.11.05
  27. Time — Nibiru, 2017 · 访问于 2026.11.05

#end of the world#doomsday date#world population#science

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