Are robots replacing people? What the future really holds for humanoid robots

True — for factory robots. According to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), 603,000 industrial robots were installed worldwide in 2025 (+11%), and a record 5 million are now working in factories. China installed 354,000 — 59% of the world total — followed by the US (about 38,500), Japan (36,200), Korea and Germany. The main buyers are electronics and car makers. The IFR expects 655,000 installations in 2026. That is roughly 30–45 times more than the number of humanoid robots sold.^[1][2][3][4]

True, but these are not humanoid robots — they are machines built for one job. Amazon has had more than 1 million warehouse robots since July 2025. 24.1 million robot vacuums were sold worldwide in 2025. There are 12,094 da Vinci surgical systems installed worldwide (September 2026), and the number of operations using them grew 14% in a year. Waymo driverless taxis gave 15 million rides in 2025 and about 500,000 a week in spring 2026. Starship delivery robots have made 10 million deliveries. Almost 250,000 professional service robots were sold, nearly half of them for moving goods and for warehouses.^{[8][9][13][15][17][18][16][5]}

Not so. About 13,000 humanoid robots were shipped worldwide in 2025 (Omdia's estimate) or about 18,000 (IDC), and about 25,000 in the first half of 2026. Chinese companies AgiBot, Unitree and UBTech lead. 69% of robots in the first half of 2026 went to research and education, exhibitions and shows, and government data centers — not to real work. At Unitree, 74% of humanoid robot buyers are in science and education.^{[19][20][21][22][23][26]}

It didn't happen. In January 2025 Elon Musk talked about roughly 10,000 robots that year and "several thousand" doing useful work by the end of the year. In January 2026 he admitted Optimus was "still in the R&D phase" and not used in factories "in a material way". In October 2026 Tesla started pilot production and promised deliveries to outside buyers only "around the end of next year", that is, by the end of 2027. Tesla does not disclose how many robots it has built.^{[29][30][31][32]}

Exaggerated. The pilot at BMW's Spartanburg plant (US) was real: over 10 months a Figure 02 robot moved more than 90,000 parts for welding and worked about 1,250 hours, 10 hours a day, five days a week. But in April 2025 BMW told Fortune that one robot at a time worked on one task at the plant, while Figure's CEO had talked about a "whole fleet of robots". After the pilot BMW announced a new pilot, not a purchase of a robot fleet. Figure said it had built 1,000 Figure 03 robots, but according to IDC only "a few dozen" were delivered to customers in the first half of 2026.^{[35][36][37][38][22]}

Partly. Since 2024 Digit has worked for the logistics company GXO under a lease deal and has moved more than 100,000 totes; it is promised for two more sites from 2027. But the companies don't disclose how many robots are working. According to its stock listing documents, Agility's revenue for all of 2025 was $1.8 million, and for the first half of 2026 it was $174,000 with a loss of $362 million; a "handful" of robots are working. Apptronik runs pilots at Mercedes-Benz plants and at GXO with no volumes named.^{[40][41][43][42][44]}

True, and these are the most real sales in the industry. Unitree shipped more than 5,500 humanoid robots to customers in 2025; the company's revenue was 1.69 billion yuan, with humanoid robots about half of it. But most buyers are labs and schools: the cheapest model, the R1, costs about $5,900. UBTech shipped 921 full-size robots in the first half of 2026, more than 80% to industrial customers, but the company is still losing money.^{[23][24][25][26][27][28]}

Not yet. The 1X NEO can be ordered for $20,000 or $499 a month, but as of November 2026 the company has not announced deliveries to customers. In a Wall Street Journal review (October 2025), the robot did tasks under remote control by a staff member wearing a VR headset; remote human help ("expert mode") is also spelled out on the order page. Boston Dynamics' Atlas is being made in 2026 only for Hyundai and Google DeepMind, and is due to start at Hyundai's plant in Georgia from 2028.^{[45][46][47][48][49]}

Not always. At Tesla's "We, Robot" event in October 2024, Optimus robots talked with guests with remote help from people (reported by Bloomberg and TechCrunch). At the robot half marathon in Beijing in April 2025, 6 of 21 finished, the best in 2 hours 40 minutes, with an operator walking next to each. At the World Humanoid Robot Games in August 2025, operators steered robots with remote controls, and fallen robots were carried off by hand.^{[33][34][50][51][52]}

These are forecasts, not facts. In 2026 Goldman Sachs expects 6.5 million shipments in 2035; Bank of America, 1.2 million a year by 2030 and 3 billion robots by 2060; Morgan Stanley, more than 1 billion by 2050; Citi, almost 650 million by 2050. Near-term forecasts for 2026 (50,000–90,000 shipments) look achievable so far: about 25,000 were shipped in the first half. But Gartner analysts think that by 2028 fewer than 20 companies worldwide will use such robots in real production, and in November 2025 Chinese authorities warned of a bubble risk: the country has more than 150 makers.^{[54][53][58][55][56][57][59][60][61][62]}

Exaggerated. An MIT study of the US for 1990–2007 found that each new robot per thousand workers cut the employment rate by 0.2 percentage points and wages by 0.4%, hitting industrial cities like Detroit hardest. But in Germany, lost factory jobs were fully offset by new jobs in services. A Bank for International Settlements study of 20 EU countries (2026) found that where robots were just arriving, employment grew faster. The countries with the most robots per worker (Korea, Singapore, Germany, Japan) do not suffer from mass unemployment. The blow can be heavy for particular jobs and cities, but the data do not show an overall picture of "robots took the jobs".^{[63][64][65][6][7][66]}

True in some cases. According to internal Amazon documents described by The New York Times (October 2025), automation could let Amazon avoid hiring more than 600,000 people in the US by 2033; Amazon replied that the documents do not reflect its overall strategy. Yet with 1 million robots, Amazon's headcount keeps growing: 1.638 million at the end of September 2026. Economists led by Erik Brynjolfsson (2026) found that a 10% rise in the minimum wage raises the chance of buying robots by about 8%: robots go where labor is expensive or workers are scarce.^[10][11][67]

Acemoglu and Restrepo publish a study: robots reduce employment and wages in industrial areas of the US.^[63]

The bank forecasts a $38 billion humanoid robot market by 2035.^[53]

Optimus robots serve drinks and chat with guests; a few days later it emerges that people were helping them remotely.^[33][34]

BMW clarifies: one Figure robot works at the plant on one task, not a "fleet of robots".^[37]

First half marathon for people and robots: of 21 robots, 6 finish, with operators beside them.^[50][51]

Amazon announces its millionth warehouse robot.^[8][9]

Orders open for the NEO home robot at $20,000; a WSJ review shows the robot working under a person's remote control.^[45][46]

Chinese authorities warn of a bubble risk: more than 150 humanoid robot makers.^[61][62]

Estimate for 2025: about 13,000 humanoid robots shipped worldwide, led by China's AgiBot, Unitree and UBTech.^[19][20]

Musk admits Optimus is still in development and not used in factories in any meaningful way.^[29]

World Robotics 2026 report: 603,000 new industrial robots in 2025, 5 million working worldwide.^[1][3]

About 25,000 humanoid robots shipped in the first half of 2026; 69% for research, education, exhibitions and government data centers.^[21][22]

Tesla starts pilot production of Optimus; deliveries to outside buyers around the end of 2027.^[31][32]

Agility Robotics goes public with revenue of $174,000 for six months.^[43]

BMW clarified that one Figure robot worked at the plant on one task, not a "fleet of robots".^[37]

Musk admitted Optimus does no useful work in factories, although a year earlier he had promised thousands of robots.^[29]

Humanoid robot shipments grew fivefold, Chinese companies lead, and most robots go to research, education and exhibitions.^[22]

IFR report: 5 million robots work in the world's factories, and China installs more than half of new ones.^[3]

Agility, the first listed humanoid robot company, has almost no revenue and is losing money.^[43]

By 2028 fewer than 20 companies will use humanoid robots in real production; the technology is "far from expectations".^[60]

Outcome: In January–February 2026, partners Kroger and Sobeys closed four automated warehouses; Kroger paid Ocado £261 million for the closures.^[12]

Outcome: iRobot dropped out of the top five, losing out to Chinese brands, and in December 2025 filed for bankruptcy with a deal to sell itself to its Chinese manufacturer.^[14][13]

Outcome: Many robots were controlled by operators, and people carried off the ones that fell.^[52]