The book that “predicted the future”: what Friedman got right and what he didn't

50% came true. There was no attack of that scale on the US. But in 2014 the Islamic State seized Mosul and declared a "caliphate", a major new war in the Middle East. In 2018 Friedman himself admitted he was wrong to expect the rise of Sunni radicals to end. He thought al-Qaeda was exhausted but did not foresee that the wars in Syria and Iraq would produce a new, stronger group. Type: extension of a trend, since there had been no attacks of that scale on the US after 2001.^{[1][4][7][27][11]}

50% came true. Troops left Iraq in December 2011, but that deadline had been written into a US-Iraq agreement back in 2008, so it was known before the book. The US left Afghanistan only in August 2021, two years after the decade ended. Type: extension of a trend.^[2][28][29]

Came true. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022; the confrontation with the US and NATO became the main one in Europe. The form turned out harsher than in the book: not a "short" cold war but a major war in Ukraine. In 2018 Friedman himself said he had predicted the conflict in Ukraine, but not that Russia would succeed there. Type: extension of a trend, since the book was written in 2008, the year of Russia's war with Georgia.^{[1][4][9][6][19][20][16][11]}

Did not come true. Russia is in the fifth year of its war and its economy is under pressure, but according to the Carnegie Endowment (September 2026) it is "not about to collapse". Back in 2015 Stratfor softened this forecast to a "breakup into semi-autonomous regions", and that did not happen either. In 2023 Friedman sticks to the breakup forecast, but no longer gives a date. He thought population decline and a weak economy would quickly undermine Russia, but did not account for its resilience: the authorities kept control, and the country was able to wage a war of attrition for years. Type: bold forecast.^{[1][3][8][18][16]}

25% came true. The slowdown did happen: growth in 2025 was 5%, down from the earlier 9–10%, and the population has been shrinking for the fourth year in a row. But China did not fragment; Beijing kept full control and became the US's main rival. In 2015 Stratfor itself replaced "fragmentation" with "keeping tight control". The author correctly saw the economy's weak spots but, as Al Habtoor analysts write, mistook vulnerability for imminent collapse. Type: bold forecast, since in 2009 most people expected China to rise.^{[1][2][12][7][21][16]}

75% came true. Japan raised military spending to 2% of GDP already in fiscal 2025, two years ahead of plan, and by the end of 2026 it is revising its strategy toward more offensive roles for its military. But the transformation into an independent great power that the book describes (by the 2030s) has not happened yet: Japan still relies on its alliance with the US. Type: bold forecast, since in 2009 Japan held on to postwar pacifism.^{[1][9][22][23][16]}

50% came true. Poland spends more on defense than any other NATO member as a share of GDP: about 4.5% in 2025, with 4.8% planned for 2026. But no separate "Polish bloc" emerged: the countries of the region rallied inside NATO, which Finland and Sweden joined in 2023–2024. The author expected NATO to weaken and Poland to have to build its own alliance, but after 2022 the alliance grew stronger instead. Type: bold forecast.^{[1][9][24][25][16]}

50% came true. After the fall of Assad in Syria in December 2024, Turkey emerged as the main winner, according to Chatham House. But it has not become the leading power in the region, a "new Ottoman Empire": it competes with Israel, Saudi Arabia and others. Type: bold forecast.^{[1][9][26][16]}

Came true. In February 2020 the US signed an agreement with the Taliban on withdrawing troops, and on August 15, 2021 the Taliban entered Kabul. Type: bold forecast, since in 2011 the US war in Afghanistan was in full swing.^[12][13][29]

25% came true. There was a deal: the 2015 nuclear agreement. But the US withdrew from it in 2018, and since February 28, 2026 the US and Israel have been at war with Iran; as of November 2026, ceasefires alternate with fighting and talks. No one has left Iran a sphere of influence. The author thought it was in the US's interest to reach an agreement with the strongest country in the region, but did not foresee a change of course in Washington or that the dispute over the nuclear program would lead to war. Type: bold forecast.^{[12][13][14][30][31][32]}

Did not come true. The US remained Israel's main ally and fought alongside it against Iran in 2026. The first serious friction appeared only in June 2026; Friedman himself called it the "first truly serious crisis" in their alliance. The author assumed that after the Cold War the US did not need Israel strategically, but did not account for Iran remaining their common adversary. Type: bold forecast.^{[12][14][31][10]}

25% came true. Until 2021 the rapprochement was under way: Germany completed the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. But on February 22, 2022 Berlin froze it, and after the invasion of Ukraine it abandoned its earlier policy of cooperation with Moscow. The author thought shared interests (gas in exchange for technology) would bring the two countries together, and did not foresee that a major war in Ukraine would break those ties. Type: extension of a trend, since Germany had been growing closer to Russia since the 1990s.^{[12][14][15][33]}

This can only be checked in the middle of the century.^[1][3]

The deadline is still ahead. The population of China and many rich countries is already shrinking, as Friedman warned.^[1][3][21]

These are forecasts for 2070–2100 and cannot be checked yet.^[1][3][5]

The deadline falls in 2028–2030; the outcome is still unclear.^[34][35]

'The Next 100 Years' comes out: Russia pushes and then collapses in the 2020s, China weakens, Japan, Turkey and Poland rise, and a new world war breaks out around 2050.^[2][1]

A review summarizes the main forecasts with dates: Russia's breakup in the 2020s, the 2050 war, Mexico's challenge by 2100.^[3]

'The Next Decade' comes out: a US deal with Iran, distance from Israel, the Taliban's return, the threat of Germany and Russia growing closer.^[12]

After the annexation of Crimea, Stratfor republishes the book's chapters on Russia and calls the 2008 forecast prescient.^[6]

Stratfor softens the book's forecasts: Russia will not collapse but will break up into semi-autonomous regions; China is more likely to keep tight control than to fragment.^[1]

Friedman in an interview: he predicted the conflict in Ukraine but not Russia's success; he was wrong to expect the rise of Sunni radicals to end.^[11]

Friedman writes that what he expected by this time has "for the most part" happened.^[7]

Friedman repeats the forecast of Russia's breakup, but now without a date.^[8]

Friedman lists six of the book's forecasts for the 2020s and calls the ones about the US and Russia "obviously coming true". The timing of Russia's breakup and China's fragmentation are not mentioned in this summary.^[9]

A UAE think tank reviews the book: the directions were right, but not the speed or the "mechanical" collapse of states.^[16]

Came true: Russia's confrontation with the West, Japan's rearmament. Partly: Poland, Turkey. Did not come true: the breakup of Russia and China, NATO's weakening.^[16]

In the reviewer's view, the rise of China, India and Russia refutes some of the book's scenarios.^[17]

The author believes his forecasts for the 2020s are mostly coming true; this is a self-assessment, not an independent check.^[7][9]

In 2014 the company Friedman founded called his forecast on Russia and Ukraine prescient.^[6]

A 2022 review of 'The Next Decade': the Paris–Berlin–Moscow axis and China's role as a "secondary player" did not materialize.^[15]

2009 reviews record exactly what the book promised and by when.^[2][3][4]

Outcome: By 2025 it had not come true: Russia remained intact.^[1][18]